Also known as: reasonably likely · reasonable likelihoods · reasonable probability
Written by attorneys · grounded in primary & secondary sources — see below
A probability standard requiring that an event or outcome be more than merely possible but less than more probable than not.
Ravi Reddy sat handcuffed in the back of a squad car after arrest for arson. Officers discussed financial pressures on local landlords and asked whether Reddy faced money problems. Reddy then admitted needing insurance money from the fire. The exchange met the standard because the officers should have known their remarks were reasonably likely to prompt an incriminating response about the suspected motive.
Rhea Reynolds swung a metal flashlight at Raymond Ramos during a struggle. Reynolds knew Ramos suffered from a heart condition that made even moderate blows dangerous. The blow proved fatal. The force qualified under the standard because Reynolds should have realized it created a reasonable likelihood of fatal consequences given Ramos's condition.
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Rebecca Ross faced trial for a high-profile murder in a small town. Local media published detailed confessions and crime-scene facts for days. The court entered a gag order after finding a reasonable likelihood that continued coverage would prevent selection of an impartial jury. The order addressed the probability that prejudicial reporting would taint the venire.
Rajesh Rao's newspaper obtained classified documents detailing government war policy. The government sought an injunction claiming disclosure would harm national security. The court denied the injunction because the government failed to show a reasonable likelihood that publication would produce the asserted damage. The standard required more than speculative harm.
Reliance Insurance sued Redline Automotive. A justice who received over three million dollars in campaign contributions from Redline's chairman refused to recuse. The Court held that the contributions created a reasonable likelihood of bias requiring recusal under due process. The probability that the justice would favor the donor undermined the appearance of impartiality.
Rita Russell was charged with rape. She claimed an honest and reasonable belief that the complainant consented. The trial court refused to instruct the jury on that defense. Reversal followed because substantial evidence supported the defense and the omission created a reasonable likelihood that the jury applied an incorrect mental-state standard.
The reasonable likelihood standard requires only that an outcome be more than merely possible, while a more-probable-than-not test demands a greater than fifty percent chance. Courts applying the former in venue and interrogation settings have explicitly held that it sets a lower threshold than the civil preponderance measure.
No. The standard focuses on whether a reasonable person in the actor's position would realize the conduct creates a substantial risk of the forbidden result. Actual occurrence is irrelevant once the probability threshold is met at the time of the conduct.
Yes. Courts treat the two phrases as interchangeable when measuring prejudice from suppressed evidence. Both ask whether disclosure would have created a probability sufficient to undermine confidence in the outcome.
…to themselves that they are battered. . . . "294. A woman in a shelter or a safe house unknown to her husband is not 'reasonably likely' to have bodily harm inflicted upon her by her batterer, however her attempt to notify her husband pursuant to section 3209 could accidentally disclose her whereabouts to her husband. Her…