Also known as: fair probabilities
Written by attorneys · grounded in primary & secondary sources — see below
A quantum of evidence establishing a practical common-sense likelihood that contraband or evidence of crime will be found in a particular place. The standard supplies probable cause for issuance of a search or arrest warrant and for warrantless vehicle searches under the automobile exception.
Faye Fuller drove her pickup away from a rural cooperative late at night. Officers stopped the truck after receiving a detailed report from a known informant and noticing a chemical smell from the covered bed. The odor and report together supplied the required showing that unlicensed pesticides were likely inside the vehicle.
Felicia Fuentes received a tip from a coworker describing specific dates and a hidden wall safe containing kickback cash. Investigators corroborated the dates with travel logs before seeking a warrant. The combination of detail and corroboration created the necessary showing that evidence would be located in the office.
Select any source to read its text and confirm it supports the definition.
Fernando Farrell submitted an affidavit containing a former employee's account of falsified titles plus supporting records from twelve transactions. The magistrate determined the facts established the required showing that Liam had directed the scheme. An arrest warrant therefore issued.
Flora Ford received an anonymous text predicting that a stagehand would exit a back door at 9:45 p.m. and hand a backpack to a person by the food truck. Officers watched the exact sequence unfold. The accurate prediction supplied the showing needed for an investigative stop.
Felix Franco was stopped for speeding in a company sedan. A certified narcotics dog alerted at the passenger door where briefcases sat. The alert created the showing that drugs were present and authorized an immediate search of the car.
Farid Farahani was arrested after agents reviewed messages directing trades on nonpublic earnings data. The timing of the trades matched the later public release and produced substantial profits. The messages and trading records together supplied the showing that insider trading had occurred.
Fair probability is the showing required for probable cause to search a vehicle without a warrant. Officers may rely on a credible informant report, the driver's history, and a chemical odor detected at the scene. When these facts together indicate contraband is likely present, the automobile exception permits an immediate search.
Supporting sources
A tip supports fair probability when the totality of circumstances shows a practical likelihood that evidence will be found. Veracity, reliability, and basis of knowledge are relevant but not rigid requirements. Strong detail plus independent corroboration such as travel logs can compensate for anonymity or potential bias.
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Yes. A properly trained and certified dog's alert at a specific location on the vehicle ordinarily establishes the required showing that contraband is present. Officers may then search the car without a warrant under the automobile exception.
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No. An anonymous tip must be evaluated under the totality of circumstances and usually requires corroboration of predictive details. When the tip accurately forecasts future movements that officers then observe, the combination can reach the necessary threshold for a stop or warrant.
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…a practical, common-sense decision whether, given all the circumstances set forth in the affidavit before him, . . . there is a fair probability that contraband or evidence of a crime will be found in a particular place." 462 U. S., at 238. The task of a reviewing court is confined to determining whether "the magistrate had a…